Saturday, December 29, 2007

3 winners for 2008?

A member on the Financial Webring Forum, probably one of the best online resources for Canadian investors, is running a stock picking contest for 2008. It is a simple contest, you pick three stocks and let them ride for the entire year. The winner is determined by the best return over 2008 assuming equal weighting of each stock.

I don't do any due diligence whatsoever on the stocks that I select for this contest. I try to go outside of the boundaries of my conservative universe of stocks, as I am shooting for high short term growth. This year I am using a bit of what I would call a 'momentum' theme with a focus on technology and emerging market needs. Here are my picks:

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) - After receiving a GPS navigator for Christmas, I am convinced that everyone needs one of these things. Guys, no more asking for directions....Ladies..no more asking 'Are we lost?'...reason being...you'll never be lost with a navigator. Garmin is coming off of a stellar 2007, where the stock gained 80%. More gains could be in store as everyone clamours to buy one of these, when they borrow their friend's Christmas gift.

Google Inc. (GOOG) - The innovation seems to have no end at this internet leader. With the success of YouTube, along with their other advertising presence online, they should continue to really crank out the earnings. As they delve into other markets like wireless, etc., if they bring the same genius that they have brought to the web, they should have much success. GOOG also had a great 2008, as the stock rose 54%.

Hanfeng Evergreen Inc. (HF) - Fertilizer + China...enough said. The stock was up 245% in 2007. This would be the most volatile of the three as if China's growth continues unabated, HF should grow like a cornstalk again in 2007, whereas any small signal of slowing growth in China could really plow the stock under.

As mentioned I have failed to do any proper due diligence on these three companies. All three are probably currently priced for perfection, and could suffer serious losses in 2008 and beyond. I am not a financial advisor, and I have been dead wrong many times before.

7 comments:

Canadian Dollars said...

hey mg, i once had held HF evergreen in my portfolio in 2006 but chickened out and sold for a modest profit. I'm now kicking myself after the amazing year they had in 2007. Oh well c'est la vie!

anywho. Nice picks. I went with much more conservative picks. I'll blog about them shortly.

http:/CanadianDollars.Blogspot.com/

4Life said...

MG: What do you think of your GPS navigator? I have wanted one of those for quite some time now. Do you have to subscribe to a service?


Best Wishes,
Dividends4Life

MG said...

4life,
You can buy much better navigators than the one that I have, but the c530 is amazing and it serves my purposes very well. There is no subscription necessary. You just mount it either on your windshield or dash and away you go. They make them portable so you can take it off and use it on hikes, city downtowns, etc.

ChefJJ said...

Great Blog you've got here...just stumbled upon it by a matter of chance. I'm linking it now for sure!

Good luck in '08.

K61 said...

GOOG is obvious. HF is an interesting pick I'll follow up with my own investigation. Garmin... not so much. At least not from a GPS point of view. With the likes of Samsung and Motorola coming out with GPS enabled cell phones, most of the GPS only devices that Garmin makes will be a thing of the past by the end of next year. Garmin is going to need to switch to survival mode this year or they'll be hit hard.

Anyhow, nice blog. I'm definitely going to subscribe. Happy new year everyone!

MG said...

chefjj & k61,

Thanks for the comments, Happy New Year!, and welcome to the moneygardener!

TheElegantInvestor said...

I am doing my due diligence on HF Evergreen. Another company that is also in the Chinese fertilizer market is Migao (MGO in Toronto).

Please note that I suck at investing so do your own work!