Monday, September 15, 2008

how my crystal ball has worked

I don't really shy away from making predictions and bets when it comes to the stock market because I don't mind being wrong, and hey...it's fun. I wanted to check up on a few of the predictions I've made on this blog to date and see how I made out.

Prediction #1 Canadian Financial Stocks Have Bottomed
On April 18, 2008, I declared the bottom on Canadian financial stocks to be March 17, 2008 ($21.50 was the level of XFN, an ETF that tracks these stocks). Well I was wrong on this one as currently the bottom is looking more like it actually occurred on July 15, 2008 ($20.00 on XFN). Or is the bottom yet to come...?

Prediction #2 The Candian Dollar Will Weaken To Levels Well Below $1USD in 2008, & Buying UPS, JNJ, and MO Now Might Be a Good Way To Benefit From This
On November 9, 2007 I posted about this and recommended UPS, JNJ, and MO when the Canadian dollar traded at about $1.06 USD. I was right on this one, as the Loonie now trades at $0.93 USD. If you had bought the stocks here is how you would have fared after currency conversion. These are the currency adjusted returns before any dividends.
UPS +9.4%
JNJ +22.3%
MO +5.8%

Prediction #3 Bank of America Will Not Cut Its Dividend
On November 3, 2007 I used some of my valuable Canadian dollars to buy some Bank of America, claiming that this purchase made a lot of sense as long as the big bank didn't cut its dividend. Well I was right on this one, so far. Bank of America is still paying out the same $0.64/ share that they were at that time, and while they failed to raise the dividend at their usual time of year, they have not cut it, yet....

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

BAC should be able to continue its payout. I am "John Holmes" on BAC and it looks extra jucy with MER in its pocket. But 50B is alot of money. I guess time will tell if they continue into next year.

Potato said...

Well, at the time I think I agreed with both #1 and #2, of course I bought WAG and GE with my Canadian dollars; today that looks like an oops. I also made a prediction when oil was at $140 that oil would drop back, but not below $120. So I'm not doing very well at this game.

MG (moneygardener) said...

Potato. Don't call WAG and GE oops's for another 10 years. I didn't buy them so that I could see them higher in a year..and I'm assuming your thinking was the same. Just use these opportunities to buy more if you believe in the companies.