Tuesday, May 19, 2009

globalization's reversal

A fascinating article and concept heading the Globe & Mail's GlobeInvestor website today features Jeff Rubin, former CIBC economist, who has written a book about a very interesting theory regarding oil. The basic premise is that skyrocketing oil will reverse globalization causing the current economy to be turned on it's ear. He predicts $200 oil by 2012 or earlier.

Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller

"I think it will really restructure the economy in ways that people haven't even begun to imagine," he said. "But I think, ironically, it's going to be a return to the past ... in terms of the re-emergence of local economies."



Anonymous said...

I would highly doubt this.
For a few reasons.
-people are driving less.
-people are driving more efficient cars.
-not as many people working, due to unemployment(notice the empty roads now?)
-more people are working from home. and this will only increase.
I could go on and on

Chris said...

I too highly doubt this. This is assuming humans don't adapt to high oil prices, and obviously we will.

Anonymous said...

Humans have exhibited a strong desire to return to the status quo after any period of turmoil. This means that we want to be back in our Hummers, commuting 60-90 minutes each way to work and filling up our tanks with cheap oil.
And yet global oil supply is rapidly declining and demand is increasing. There is no way that our society will be able to adapt quick enough to counteract the rapid decline in oil production that we are about to experience... and the results will be dramatic and scary.
For those that don't accept that this coming, don't say you weren't warned.

MG (moneygardener) said...

The theory is very interesting to say the least. The conclusions you could draw from this change the world. The article certainly markets the book well. The conclusions seem drastic but also seem plausible unless major changes take hold which does not seem likely to me.

Anonymous said...

Chris Martensen does a great job of encapsulating the issues that face our planet in the next 20 years:

Sampson said...

I think some of the comments show that many have a bias towards Western country consumers and their effects on oil demand.

From what I recall of Rubin's earlier remarks (leading up to $150 oil last year), growth from emerging markets is/will become the primary driver for oil demand. Because NA's are beginning to become adverse to oil use, the economic expansion in India and China alone could drive prices skyward.

Andrew said...

Nobody really knows how much oil there is in the world. There are recent studies show that oil is constantly being "produced" in the earth's crust. Several oil sites considered empty were found to be full again.